This study examines the factors that may lead people to previously evacuate against flooding, based on the results of a survey in Edogawa Ward. Edogawa Ward and the other five Koto wards have a zero- meter zone, which is predicted to be inundated on a large scale and over a long period due to storm surges and floods of once-in-a-thousand-year levels. In these areas, residents are required to plan for evacuation, as the designated shelters in case of disasters are also at risk of flooding. For this reason, the five Koto wards will issue wide-area evacuation information three days before a disaster is expected to occur, calling on residents to evacuate out of the wards.
Does the issuance of wide-area evacuation information contribute to the safe evacuation of residents? In order to examine this question, this study attempts to model evacuation behavior using the Opinion Dynamics Model (ODM). Existing researches have succeeded in explaining mechanism of evacuation behaviors such as 'shadow evacuation', but these studies have assumed uniform parameter settings and have not been able to represent differences of attributes and risk perception. In this study, the influence of public information on evacuation behavior is clarified through stratification of respondents.
