This study examines the factors that may lead people to previously evacuate against flooding, based on the
results of a survey in Edogawa Ward. Edogawa Ward and the other five Koto wards have a zero-meter zone,
which is predicted to be inundated on a large scale and over a long period due to storm surges and floods of
once-in-a-thousand-year levels. In these areas, residents are required to plan for evacuation, as the designated
shelters in case of disasters are also at risk of flooding. For this reason, the five Koto wards will issue wide-area
evacuation information three days before a disaster is expected to occur, calling on residents to evacuate out of
the wards. Does the issuance of wide-area evacuation information contribute to the safe evacuation of the
population? In order to simulate evacuation behaviour for this question, this study provides a hierarchy of trends
in evacuation behaviour. In other words, by analysing regional and demographic trends in evacuation behaviour,
this paper introduces hierarchical stochastic processes to the Opinion Dynamics Model (ODM) of evacuation
behaviour to enable simulations that are tailored to regional and attribute-specific issues. This presentation
reveals the results of a questionnaire survey on evacuation behaviour conducted for this purpose.
