論文

基本情報

氏名 久保 裕也
氏名(カナ) クボ ヒロヤ
氏名(英語) KUBO, Hiroya
所属 国際教養学部
職名 教授
researchmap研究者コード
researchmap機関

題名

Simulating the decoupling world under Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: An application of IDE-GSM

単著・共著の別

共著

概要

Kumagai Satoru, Hayakawa Kazunobu, Isono Ikumo, Gokan Toshitaka, Keola Souknilanh, Tsubota Kenmei, Kubo Hiroya
The world appears to be divided into three blocs: the Chinese–Russian bloc, the Western alliance, and the rest of the world that remains neutral in the conflict between the former camps. This study estimates the economic impacts of “decoupling” scenarios on each country and region using a computable general equilibrium (CGE)-type simulation model called the geographical simulation model developed by the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-GSM). Simulation results indicate that 1) the decoupling of Russia will not have a significant impact on the global economy, except in the mining sector, and 2) if China joins the Russian camp, the impact will be significant on the world economy, especially for Asian countries.

発行雑誌等の名称

IDE Discussion Paper


巻・号・掲載ページ(移行用)

 

発行又は発表の年月

202301