Kumagai Satoru, Hayakawa Kazunobu, Isono Ikumo, Gokan Toshitaka, Keola Souknilanh, Tsubota Kenmei, Kubo Hiroya
The world appears to be divided into three blocs: the Chinese–Russian bloc, the Western alliance, and the rest of the world that remains neutral in the conflict between the former camps. This study estimates the economic impacts of “decoupling” scenarios on each country and region using a computable general equilibrium (CGE)-type simulation model called the geographical simulation model developed by the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-GSM). Simulation results indicate that 1) the decoupling of Russia will not have a significant impact on the global economy, except in the mining sector, and 2) if China joins the Russian camp, the impact will be significant on the world economy, especially for Asian countries.
